I am writing this after the DNC where there was an interesting amount of fanfare, backslapping and bluster. The optics and the media are showing this as a rock concert where, in my opinion, superstars and celebrities have taken the place of policy and pragmatism. If you are a democratic supporter you may have enjoyed the DNC but there is a real risk that the recent history of 2016 will repeat itself.
In 2016 Hilary Clinton led a similar type of campaign. Big names, big egos and loose words: remember the degenerates comment? I suspect this “weird” comment that is being used by the likes of Walz et al may be the 2024 version of the degenerates. They have been more careful this time not to call the actual voters weird but I do wonder if some will make that association anyway.
Consider 2016, Obama has finished his two terms as president and the race to replace him in the Democratic party is heating up. He chose to endorse Hilary Clinton rather than the VP at the time, who decided to enter the race. Why he decided to do that we will never know but the sway in which he and his family seem to hold over the party was enough to push Clinton into the position of nominee. When Obama said “there has never been a man or woman, not me, not Bill (Clinton) - nobody more qualified than Hillary Clinton to serve as president of the united states”, I think he did his VP a massive disservice. Although full of hyperbole when saying this, by not backing Joe Biden he probably passed the chance to actually back the most qualified person to serve as president of the united states.
Nevertheless, the die was cast and Clinton was now the nominee. From the way she spoke about others and the voting public (see degenerates above) and from how she failed to effectively campaign in the swing states this his was an unmitigated disaster. An examples of this is the night before the election when Trump was in 11 different places all of which were in swing states. Clinton did not do this and chose to be seen with celebrities. These, as well as a number of other factors, led to the the Trump win. Poll after poll (with small sample sizes) showed the Dems they were winning. Yet perhaps a little analysis of these polls by the media may have told a more realistic story: that in a race which shouldn’t have been close, it was too close.
If you scrutinise the way the electoral college system works it means that some people who had voted for Obama will have voted for Trump before Clinton. Why? We will never know the true reason but the fact remains that they did and the Democrats lost the election. I am not blaming Clinton solely for this as there was no doubt she was facing an uphill battle with misogyny and her husband’s’ failings (which were not her responsibility) being two barriers that spring to mind but it was her election to lose - and she lost it.
Now we move to 2020. Joe Biden is chosen and wins. Those who voted Obama, then voted Trump, are now voting Biden. In my opinion if the Democrats had done this in 2016 we would never have had a Trump win. If I were a democrat I would be seriously worried that the same pattern of recent history will repeat itself. If so, and Trump wins in 2024, what happens in 2028.? The Republicans will surely have moved the Trump and MAGA supporters through and out the party and may go back to a normalised Republican operating procedure. As for the Democrats, there will be no Biden option and in that case there may be no option.